The (Mis)Use of Econometric Models in Traffic Forecasting: A Discussion Pape

Robert Bain RBconsult | London | November 2017
In my reviews of toll road traffic and revenue (T&R) forecasts I’m frequently presented with econometric models. Typical uses are for forecasting traffic in a simple, brownfield corridor with limited alternatives or to grow matrices in the context of a broader network model.
The econometric models are invariably cast as log-log formulations (no diagnostics in support) and the goodness-of-fit stats that result from model estimation are typically spectacular (R-sq > 0.9).

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About Bill Reinhardt

Editor of Public Works Financing newsletter

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